USA: Alle 50 stater
Publisert 20. oktober 2020. Sist endret 20. oktober 2020.
1) Tabellen bygger på siste måling i alle USAs 50 stater, dvs. ferskeste fra RCP eller 538.
2) Vi bruker samme metode som beregning av "landsresultat" i norske valg basert på lokale målinger, dvs. at delstatene leverer samme antall godkjente stemmer som i presidentvalget 2016.
3) Bidens ledelse med denne beregningen er 9,0 prosentpoeng nasjonalt (53,3 vs 44,3).
4) Vår beregning bygget på 17 jevne stater i 2016, og en forutsetning om samme relative endring i landet ellers, gir Biden +9,2 (53,1 vs 43,9). At disse ulike beregningene er så tett på hverandre hva gjelder Bidens ledelse, er interessant.
5) Takk til Jon Aabye for tabellen.
50 stater – Trump vs Biden
Basert på ferskeste måling(er) for hver stat iht RCP + 538 innen 19.10.20
| Stat | Trump | % | Biden | % | Andre | % | Sum | Publ.dato | Elektorer Trump | Elektorer Biden | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 5126 | 36,0 | 8 828 | 62,0 | 285 | 2,0 | 14238 | 15.okt | 55 | ||
| Florida | 4 418 | 46,5 | 4 561 | 48,0 | 523 | 5,5 | 9 502 | 16.okt | 29 | ||
| Texas | 4 575 | 51,0 | 4 216 | 47,0 | 179 | 2,0 | 8 970 | 17.okt | 38 | ||
| New York | 2 543 | 33,0 | 5 009 | 65,0 | 154 | 2,0 | 7706 | 15.okt | 29 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 2 835 | 46,0 | 3 266 | 53,0 | 62 | 1,0 | 6 163 | 17.okt | 20 | ||
| Illinois | 2 117 | 38,0 | 3 343 | 60,0 | 111 | 2,0 | 5572 | 15.okt | 20 | ||
| Ohio | 2 823 | 51,0 | 2 602 | 47,0 | 111 | 2,0 | 5 536 | 17.okt | 18 | ||
| Michigan | 2 123 | 44,0 | 2 557 | 53,0 | 145 | 3,0 | 4 824 | 17.okt | 16 | ||
| North Carolina | 2 181 | 46,0 | 2 466 | 52,0 | 95 | 2,0 | 4 742 | 17.okt | 15 | ||
| Georgia | 1 967 | 47,5 | 2 029 | 49,0 | 145 | 3,5 | 4 141 | 16.okt | 16 | ||
| Virginia | 1 672 | 42,0 | 2 230 | 56,0 | 80 | 2,0 | 3 982 | 17.okt | 13 | ||
| New Jersey | 1 406 | 36,0 | 2 285 | 58,5 | 215 | 5,5 | 3906 | 15.okt | 14 | ||
| Massachussetts | 964 | 29,0 | 2 294 | 69,0 | 67 | 2,0 | 3325 | 15.okt | 11 | ||
| Washington | 1 227 | 37,0 | 2 023 | 61,0 | 66 | 2,0 | 3317 | 15.okt | 12 | ||
| Wisconsin | 1 324 | 44,5 | 1 577 | 53,0 | 74 | 2,5 | 2 976 | 17.okt | 10 | ||
| Minnesota | 1 237 | 42,0 | 1 649 | 56,0 | 59 | 2,0 | 2 945 | 17.okt | 10 | ||
| Missouri | 1 471 | 52,0 | 1 273 | 45,0 | 85 | 3,0 | 2828 | 15.okt | 10 | ||
| Maryland | 890 | 32,0 | 1 864 | 67,0 | 28 | 1,0 | 2782 | 15.okt | 10 | ||
| Colorado | 1 098 | 39,5 | 1 571 | 56,5 | 111 | 4,0 | 2 780 | 17.okt | 9 | ||
| Indiana | 1 461 | 53,0 | 1 241 | 45,0 | 55 | 2,0 | 2757 | 15.okt | 11 | ||
| Arizona | 1 198 | 46,0 | 1 341 | 51,5 | 65 | 2,5 | 2 604 | 17.okt | 11 | ||
| Tennessee | 1 455 | 58,0 | 1 003 | 40,0 | 50 | 2,0 | 2508 | 15.okt | 11 | ||
| Alabama | 1 253 | 59,0 | 828 | 39,0 | 42 | 2,0 | 2123 | 15.okt | 9 | ||
| South Carolina | 1 093 | 52,0 | 946 | 45,0 | 63 | 3,0 | 2102 | 15.okt | 9 | ||
| Louisiana | 1 157 | 57,0 | 812 | 40,0 | 61 | 3,0 | 2029 | 15.okt | 8 | ||
| Oregon | 760 | 38,0 | 1 201 | 60,0 | 40 | 2,0 | 2001 | 15.okt | 7 | ||
| Kentucky | 1 116 | 58,0 | 789 | 41,0 | 19 | 1,0 | 1924 | 15.okt | 8 | ||
| Connecticut | 559 | 34,0 | 1 052 | 64,0 | 33 | 2,0 | 1644 | 15.okt | 7 | ||
| Iowa | 767 | 49,0 | 783 | 50,0 | 16 | 1,0 | 1 566 | 17.okt | 6 | ||
| Oklahoma | 842 | 58,0 | 581 | 40,0 | 29 | 2,0 | 1452 | 15.okt | 7 | ||
| Mississippi | 714 | 59,0 | 472 | 39,0 | 24 | 2,0 | 1211 | 15.okt | 6 | ||
| Kansas | 632 | 53,0 | 549 | 46,0 | 12 | 1,0 | 1193 | 15.okt | 6 | ||
| Utah | 618 | 54,0 | 503 | 44,0 | 23 | 2,0 | 1144 | 15.okt | 6 | ||
| Arkansas | 655 | 58,0 | 441 | 39,0 | 34 | 3,0 | 1130 | 15.okt | 6 | ||
| Nevada | 540 | 48,0 | 574 | 51,0 | 11 | 1,0 | 1 125 | 17.okt | 6 | ||
| Nebraska | 448 | 53,0 | 380 | 45,0 | 17 | 2,0 | 845 | 15.okt | 4 | 1 | Biden CD2 |
| New Mexico | 367 | 46,0 | 423 | 53,0 | 8 | 1,0 | 798 | 17.okt | 5 | ||
| New Hampshire | 305 | 41,0 | 432 | 58,0 | 7 | 1,0 | 745 | 17.okt | 4 | ||
| Maine | 322 | 43,0 | 419 | 56,0 | 7 | 1,0 | 749 | 17.okt | 4 | ||
| West-Virginia | 461 | 64,0 | 245 | 34,0 | 14 | 2,0 | 721 | 15.okt | 5 | ||
| Idaho | 408 | 59,0 | 269 | 39,0 | 14 | 2,0 | 691 | 15.okt | 4 | ||
| Montana | 271 | 54,0 | 221 | 44,0 | 10 | 2,0 | 502 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Rhode Island | 144 | 31,0 | 316 | 68,0 | 5 | 1,0 | 465 | 15.okt | 4 | ||
| Delaware | 147 | 33,0 | 289 | 65,0 | 9 | 2,0 | 444 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Hawai | 133 | 31,0 | 287 | 67,0 | 9 | 2,0 | 429 | 15.okt | 4 | ||
| South Dakota | 215 | 58,0 | 152 | 41,0 | 4 | 1,0 | 370 | 01.okt | 3 | ||
| North Dakota | 204 | 59,0 | 135 | 39,0 | 7 | 2,0 | 345 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Alaska | 156 | 49,0 | 134 | 42,0 | 29 | 9,0 | 318 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Vermont | 100 | 32,0 | 210 | 67,0 | 3 | 1,0 | 314 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Washington D.C. | 31 | 10,0 | 275 | 88,0 | 6 | 2,0 | 312 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Wyoming | 163 | 64,0 | 87 | 34,0 | 5 | 2,0 | 255 | 15.okt | 3 | ||
| Projection | 60694 | 44,3 | 73 031 | 53,3 | 3325 | 2,4 | 137051 | 181 | 357 | ||
| Justert | 44,1 | 44,0 | 53,0 | 3,0 |
Johan Giertsen
